Page 6 Fixed Income Quarterly—Gas & Electric Utilities
Table 4: Indicative Spread Changes Q1/14
5 Yr. Indicative Spreads 10 Yr. Indicative Spreads 30 Yr. Indicative Spreads
Absolute Spread as of Change
31-Mar-14 Q1/14
Percentage Change Q1/14
Absolute Spread as of Change
31-Mar-14 Q1/14
Percentage Change Q1/14
Absolute Spread as of Change
31-Mar-14 Q1/14
Percentage Change Q1/14
AltaGas
AltaLink LP
CU Inc.
Enbridge Gas Distribution EPCOR Utilities FortisAlberta
FortisBC Energy Inc. FortisBC
Gaz Metropolitan Inc. Hydro One
Nova Scotia Power PowerStream Inc. Toronto Hydro TransAlta Corp. Union Gas Ltd.
111 -4 -3% 70 -9 -11% 68 -4 -5% 66 -2 -2% 75 -4 -4% 72 -5 -6% 69 -9 -11% 77 -5 -6% 73 -4 -5% 66 -5 -6% 83 -4 -4% - NA NA
69 228 80
-4 -5% -6 -2% -10 -11%
149 -7 -4% 104 -8 -7%
100 -3 -3%
101 0 0%
109 -3 -3%
- NA NA 101 -6 -6% 110 -4 -4% 106 -3 -3% 99 -3 -3% 115 -3 -3%
- NA NA
102 295 109
-3 -3% -31 -10% -7 -6%
179 -27 -13% 132 -5 -3% 131 -4 -3% 128 -4 -3% 138 -8 -5% 132 -10 -7%
132 -7 -5%
133 -14 -9%
131 -4 -3% 129 -5 -3% 142 -5 -3% 135 -5 -3% 132 -7 -5% 365 -24 -6% 137 -2 -1%
Utilities Average
99 -6 -6%
139 -8 -5%
154 -10 -6%
Source: BMO Capital Markets
Table 5: Utility Credit Curve
2's - 5's Curve 5's - 10's Curve 10's - 30's Curve
Historical Thresholds 31-Mar-14 31-Dec-13 31-Dec-12 Narrow Wide
Historical Thresholds 31-Mar-14 31-Dec-13 31-Dec-12 Narrow Wide
Historical Thresholds 31-Mar-14 31-Dec-13 31-Dec-12 Narrow Wide
AltaGas
AltaLink LP
CU Inc.
Enbridge Gas Distribution EPCOR Utilities
FortisBC Energy Inc. Gaz Metropolitan Inc. Hydro One
Nova Scotia Power Toronto Hydro TransAlta Corp. Union Gas Ltd.
30 27 27 15 43 18 23 31 7 31 18 20 31 8 31 18 19 32 9 32 15 17 27 11 32 16 19 29 9 31 18 20 35 7 34 16 19 29 7 30 21 23 28 11 32 14 18 24 14 32 62 59 61 14 59 22 23 26 9 29
38 41 47 30 66 35 34 35 15 34 33 32 35 15 34 36 34 40 18 37 35 34 36 23 42 33 30 33 18 36 34 33 38 15 37 34 32 35 14 35 33 32 35 22 37 34 33 39 14 37 68 93 118 30 86 30 27 46 17 40
30 50 45 NA NA 28 24 35 20 41 31 31 35 21 40 27 30 30 19 45 29 33 34 26 56 31 31 34 23 61 25 25 38 20 43 30 31 37 21 40 27 28 34 25 56 30 33 39 22 44 70 63 88 41 93 28 22 24 16 56
Group Average
22 24 32 10 35
36 38 45 19 43
32 33 39 23 52
* Thresholds are based on the historical 10th (low) and 90th (high) percentile of weekly spreads. Source: BMO Capital Markets