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Fixed Income Quarterly—Outlook
Data Tables
Table 4.2
Indicative Spread Changes – Q1 2014
Indicative 10-Year (bps)
Indicative 30-Year (bps)
31-Mar-14 Cash BA
Absolute Change Cash BA
Cash Thresholds* Lower Upper
31-Mar-14 Cash BA
Absolute Change Cash BA
Cash Thresholds* Lower Upper
Canada Yield Provinces
Province of B.C. Province of Ontario Province of Quebec
Banks (Senior)
BMO
CIBC National Bank Royal Bank Scotiabank TD Bank
Banks (Sub Debt)
BMO
CIBC National Bank Royal Bank Scotiabank TD Bank
Diversified Financials
GE Capital Great-West LifeCo. IGM Financial Manulife Financial Sun Life Financial
Infrastructure
407 International GTAA
NAV Canada (Senior)
Oil & Gas
EnCana
Suncor Energy
Pipelines
Alliance Pipeline Limited Partnership Enbridge Inc.
Enbridge Pipelines
TransCanada Pipelines
Westcoast Energy
REITs
Calloway REIT First Capital Realty H&R REIT
RioCan REIT
Retail
Canadian Tire Loblaw METRO Inc.
Telecom/Media
Bell Canada
TELUS
Utilities
Brookfield Renewable Power CU Inc.
Enbridge Gas Distribution EPCOR Utilities FortisAlberta
Gaz Metropolitan Hydro One
Nova Scotia Power TransAlta Corp. Union Gas
2.46%
65 - 82 - 92 -
119 81 119 81 122 84 119 81 119 81 114 76
140 102 143 105 149 111 140 102 141 103 137 99
120 82 130 92 160 122 155 117 143 105
103 65 100 62 96 58
139 101 128 90
158 120 130 92 103 65 110 72 129 91
188 150 178 140 205 167 181 143
149 111 159 121 167 129
150 112 143 105
192 154 100 62 101 63 109 71
-- 106 68 99 61 115 77 295 257 109 71
4- 3- 5-
(4) 0 (4) 0 (4) 0 (4) 0 (4) 0 (4) 0
(4) 0 (4) 0 (3) 1 (4) 0 (4) 0 (4) 0
(4) 0 (6) (2) (7) (3) (6) (2) (5) (1)
(3) 1 (5) (1) (1) 3
(14) (9) (14) (9)
(1) 3 (3) 1 (1) 3 (1) 3 (12) (8)
(32) (27) (27) (22) (33) (28) (27) (22)
(26) (22) (26) (22) (11) (7)
(16) (12) (13) (9)
(10) (6) (3) 1 04 (3) 1
-- (3) 1 (3) 1 (3) 1
(31) (27) (7) (3)
21 88 28 99 38 110
50 181 54 195 62 256
46 157
47 158
50 168
58 218 60 228 66 243
57 215
58 216
59 215
47 238 59 205 72 237 93 303 69 274
57 144 68 152 48 125
67 220 65 205
76 239 68 195 57 158 61 182 70 175
212 384 193 322 230 369 195 290
158 321 163 375 160 365
71 400 90 260
100 490 52 131 57 158 73 200 -- 51 145 47 123 77 167 100 400 62 159
2.96%
79 - 93 - 107 -
-- -- -- -- -- --
-- -- -- -- -- --
143 100 151 108 184 141 192 149 176 133
131 88 129 85 125 81
-- 163 119
-- 154 110 130 86 142 98 157 113
-- -- -- --
195 152 195 152 215 172
189 146 183 140
259 215 131 87 128 84 138 94 132 88 131 87 129 85 142 98 365 322 137 93
2- 1- 3-
-- -- -- -- -- --
-- -- -- -- -- --
(9) (9) (13) (13) (12) (12) (15) (15) (16) (16)
(6) (6) (7) (7) (7) (7)
-- (11) (11)
-- (11) (11) (4) (4) (3) (3) (9) (9)
-- -- -- --
(35) (35) (37) (37) (15) (15)
(9) (9) (10) (10)
(27) (27) (4) (4) (4) (4) (8) (8) (10) (10) (4) (4) (5) (5) (5) (5) (24) (24) (2) (2)
33 96 46 104 56 119
-- -- -- -- -- --
-- -- -- -- -- --
87 288 96 254 115 281 123 341 102 319
92 168 117 180 73 156
-- 116 245
-- 123 231 99 175 115 215 125 202
-- -- -- --
234 390 237 420 230 430
131 415 150 285
158 525 86 158 99 176 127 250 104 177 89 170 79 154 130 204 171 471 114 178
Domestic Corporate Avg. (Excluding Maples) (9)
(14)
* Thresholds are based on the historical 10th (Lower) and 90th (Upper) percentile of daily spreads. R - Restricted
Source: BMO Capital Markets